As you may have heard,
Syria
has agreed to a deal to disarm its chemical weapons.
Russia mad its move (as I suspect
that they were the ones who gave the chemical weapons to the Syrians) so as to
cover its butt, and look good for the international community. But I have
doubts as to the overall intentions of both my country and that of
Russia. I state
now that this is all my opinion and opinion exclusively.
Syria's
intentions Assad: The reason that Syrian President Assad agreed to the
deal was to prevent other countries from entering
Syria and siding with the rebels.
Even though Al Quada and other Jihadist infiltrated the rebels with western
governments like the
U.S.
supporting them (who is giving them weapons) will mean Assad's forces will be
out numbered and out gunned. Let us face it;
Russia
is not going to fight a proxy war against the
U.S. and other countries to save
Assad. The Russian government is smart and they know how the international
power struggle works.
America
is weakening and
Russia
is looking to take the top spot. As such Assad surrendered to the international
pressure to stall for time. He needs to suppress the rebels, or at least buy
time to escape along with his loyalists to another country. In addition, this
gives Assad a chance to stay in power as he does have support from groups like
Hezbollah and even
Iran
who are sending in Iranian soldiers to fight for Assad. Russia and Iran need
Syria for an upcoming oil pipeline which can either go from Russia, through
Iran and finally into Syria up into Europe, or it will go from Qatar into Saudi
Arabia into Syria and then into Europe. It is no wonder why Qatar and Saudi
Arabia have decided to back the rebels and even go as far as to say they will
help pay for most of the conflict (they stand to get their money back and
more).
Syria's
intentions Rebels: The rebels are a hodgepodge of various groups. Some
are Kurds seeking autonomy. Others are those who seek democracy. But
unfortunately for both groups, terrorists have infiltrated the rebels. Many foreign
terrorists see this as apart of the greater Jihad and are also using this
conflict as a recruiting tool. What people may not know is that the rebels are
almost entirely Sunni Muslim while Assad and his Soldiers are Shiite Muslim.
This conflict goes back to the days when Muslims argued over who should succeed
in leadership in the Muslim faith. So this conflict is as old if not older than
the hatred that radical Muslims have for
Israel and the Jews. As such, the
Jihadist terrorist rebels seek control and power over the region to suppress
their Shiite brethren. There are even unconfirmed reports that Sunni rebel
groups have wiped out Shiite rebel groups. So aside from taking control and
making a Sunni government, the rebels and the intentions of each rebel faction
are far from clear.
The rest of us: The
United States feels it is doing its
duty as the world police by saying they will interfere in the conflict.
Russia as you
know needs allies in the region and wants the oil pipeline to be successful. Sunni
Muslim countries want the oil pipeline for themselves. The European Union has
the same stance as the
U.S.,
but does not have the resources to mount a long term conflict. International
groups that advocate for human rights and peace sided with the rebels under the
naive notion that democracy will solve the problem of conflicts in the region.
Sadly the democracy they speak of died with the
Athenian City
State. What they need is
a republic, but so far, the only truly successful republic is still the
United States
(though like all democratic forms of government they face collapse). So what is
to be done?
Conclusion: What is best is also the choice no one wants to
hear. That is for the conflict to continue. Buy keeping the battles going, the
Russian and
U.S.
governments can draw out the conflict to bring in more Jihadist terrorists. By
doing so, there will be less to cause trouble in their own countries and allied
countries. For those terrorists who cannot afford to go, the intelligence
agencies can sponsor them (secretly of course) to go there to fight for
"their" cause. With the fighting centralized in one location the
Jihadists will have less of a chance to recruit as many new members and their
numbers will dwindle do to this slow down and them being suicidal fighters to
begin with. Both
Russia and
the
U.S. can agree on this
strategy as both face the same problem with Jihadists (the
U.S. being declared the "great Satan"
by Jihadists and Jihadists in
Chechnya
fighting the Russians for control). A win win for the two "great"
super powers. As to the innocent victims in between, well that is where
intelligence agencies come in again to smuggle people out of the conflict. In
addition, hit teams will be used to keep either side from becoming too powerful.
The
U.S. will even be able
to drain
Iran of its
financial resources due to their support for
Syria. Basically every one wins
except the Syrian people themselves. But I would not be surprised to see the
conflict explode further into
Lebanon,
Jordan,
Iraq and
Turkey. At that point, it stops
being a rebellion and it becomes World War III. I pray that this does not
happen, but it may be the most likely scenario.