Issue 167 Syria and WMDs September 20, 2013

As you may have heard, Syria has agreed to a deal to disarm its chemical weapons. Russia mad its move (as I suspect that they were the ones who gave the chemical weapons to the Syrians) so as to cover its butt, and look good for the international community. But I have doubts as to the overall intentions of both my country and that of Russia. I state now that this is all my opinion and opinion exclusively.

Syria's intentions Assad: The reason that Syrian President Assad agreed to the deal was to prevent other countries from entering Syria and siding with the rebels. Even though Al Quada and other Jihadist infiltrated the rebels with western governments like the U.S. supporting them (who is giving them weapons) will mean Assad's forces will be out numbered and out gunned. Let us face it; Russia is not going to fight a proxy war against the U.S. and other countries to save Assad. The Russian government is smart and they know how the international power struggle works. America is weakening and Russia is looking to take the top spot. As such Assad surrendered to the international pressure to stall for time. He needs to suppress the rebels, or at least buy time to escape along with his loyalists to another country. In addition, this gives Assad a chance to stay in power as he does have support from groups like Hezbollah and even Iran who are sending in Iranian soldiers to fight for Assad. Russia and Iran need Syria for an upcoming oil pipeline which can either go from Russia, through Iran and finally into Syria up into Europe, or it will go from Qatar into Saudi Arabia into Syria and then into Europe. It is no wonder why Qatar and Saudi Arabia have decided to back the rebels and even go as far as to say they will help pay for most of the conflict (they stand to get their money back and more).

Syria's intentions Rebels: The rebels are a hodgepodge of various groups. Some are Kurds seeking autonomy. Others are those who seek democracy. But unfortunately for both groups, terrorists have infiltrated the rebels. Many foreign terrorists see this as apart of the greater Jihad and are also using this conflict as a recruiting tool. What people may not know is that the rebels are almost entirely Sunni Muslim while Assad and his Soldiers are Shiite Muslim. This conflict goes back to the days when Muslims argued over who should succeed in leadership in the Muslim faith. So this conflict is as old if not older than the hatred that radical Muslims have for Israel and the Jews. As such, the Jihadist terrorist rebels seek control and power over the region to suppress their Shiite brethren. There are even unconfirmed reports that Sunni rebel groups have wiped out Shiite rebel groups. So aside from taking control and making a Sunni government, the rebels and the intentions of each rebel faction are far from clear.

The rest of us: The United States feels it is doing its duty as the world police by saying they will interfere in the conflict. Russia as you know needs allies in the region and wants the oil pipeline to be successful. Sunni Muslim countries want the oil pipeline for themselves. The European Union has the same stance as the U.S., but does not have the resources to mount a long term conflict. International groups that advocate for human rights and peace sided with the rebels under the naive notion that democracy will solve the problem of conflicts in the region. Sadly the democracy they speak of died with the Athenian City State. What they need is a republic, but so far, the only truly successful republic is still the United States (though like all democratic forms of government they face collapse). So what is to be done?

Conclusion: What is best is also the choice no one wants to hear. That is for the conflict to continue. Buy keeping the battles going, the Russian and U.S. governments can draw out the conflict to bring in more Jihadist terrorists. By doing so, there will be less to cause trouble in their own countries and allied countries. For those terrorists who cannot afford to go, the intelligence agencies can sponsor them (secretly of course) to go there to fight for "their" cause. With the fighting centralized in one location the Jihadists will have less of a chance to recruit as many new members and their numbers will dwindle do to this slow down and them being suicidal fighters to begin with. Both Russia and the U.S. can agree on this strategy as both face the same problem with Jihadists (the U.S. being declared the "great Satan" by Jihadists and Jihadists in Chechnya fighting the Russians for control). A win win for the two "great" super powers. As to the innocent victims in between, well that is where intelligence agencies come in again to smuggle people out of the conflict. In addition, hit teams will be used to keep either side from becoming too powerful. The U.S. will even be able to drain Iran of its financial resources due to their support for Syria. Basically every one wins except the Syrian people themselves. But I would not be surprised to see the conflict explode further into Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey. At that point, it stops being a rebellion and it becomes World War III. I pray that this does not happen, but it may be the most likely scenario.