So I was watching some analysis of who has to win what on the
Republican side to win the nomination. What I saw surprised me, but was
overall interesting. The analysis comes from Glenn Beck and his crew at
the Blaze and also from Fox News. Here is the summary of what the pundits
think has to happen for Trump to stand the greatest chance to win the
nomination.
Trump has to beat Rubio in Florida to kick
him out of the race. The reason is that Florida is Rubio's home State and
that if he loses the support of his home State, then he will be seen as
incapable of winning the election and thus lose his support. As to why it
is so important for Rubio to lose is simple. If the nomination goes to
the Republican National Convention, the delegates will choose Rubio as the de
facto establishment Republican who has the greatest chance of winning the
election. You see the delegates for the Republican Party are there to act
as a counter to insure the candidate chosen is not too radical. As such
when a delegate is chosen, those votes to choose a delegate to represent
republican districts in Blue States like New York have a greater value.
In other words you can have a Republican Primary or Caucus vote in New
York with a population of two thousand versus a heavily Conservative district
in Alabama with over 200,000, but still wind up with the same number of
delegates. The logic is that Blue State Republicans are more to the
center. Needless to say, these delegates favor Rubio according to the
pundits.
If Rubio loses Florida then it means that
Trump has to only take on Ted Cruz for the nomination as they are the top two
non-establishment candidates with the greatest chances of winning. As such,
outside of Kasich, there will be no more establishment candidates left.
It is important to note that if Cruz loses his home State of Texas then
he would also be out, but he is not as important at the moment with respect to
who Donald Trump has to defeat in the near term. The analysis from the
Blaze and Fox News says that if Rubio bows out after losing Florida, then the
delegates will favor Trump over Cruz. As such, Trump has an easier time
versus Cruz so long as he keeps up his popularity with the establishment and
the voters.
Final Thought: So this is what I heard. I am
repeating this like a parrot, except that I condensed it to make it less
boring. Anyway, this also highlights how undemocratic the nomination process
has become with respect to parties nominating their candidates. It is
kind of sad, but if Trump or Cruz gets the nod, then the system will change
again with the party attempting to adjust to prevent candidates like Trump and
Cruz from gaining power ever again. Needless to say, I am favor of Cruz,
but a vote for either means sticking it to the establishment. Rebel my
fellow Conservatives, Libertarians and Constitutionalists. Rebel by
voting for Trump or my guy Cruz.
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