Monday, February 29, 2016

Trump Versus Rubio!?

So I was watching some analysis of who has to win what on the Republican side to win the nomination.  What I saw surprised me, but was overall interesting.  The analysis comes from Glenn Beck and his crew at the Blaze and also from Fox News.  Here is the summary of what the pundits think has to happen for Trump to stand the greatest chance to win the nomination. 

Trump has to beat Rubio in Florida to kick him out of the race.  The reason is that Florida is Rubio's home State and that if he loses the support of his home State, then he will be seen as incapable of winning the election and thus lose his support.  As to why it is so important for Rubio to lose is simple.  If the nomination goes to the Republican National Convention, the delegates will choose Rubio as the de facto establishment Republican who has the greatest chance of winning the election.  You see the delegates for the Republican Party are there to act as a counter to insure the candidate chosen is not too radical.  As such when a delegate is chosen, those votes to choose a delegate to represent republican districts in Blue States like New York have a greater value.  In other words you can have a Republican Primary or Caucus vote in New York with a population of two thousand versus a heavily Conservative district in Alabama with over 200,000, but still wind up with the same number of delegates.  The logic is that Blue State Republicans are more to the center.  Needless to say, these delegates favor Rubio according to the pundits.

If Rubio loses Florida then it means that Trump has to only take on Ted Cruz for the nomination as they are the top two non-establishment candidates with the greatest chances of winning. As such, outside of Kasich, there will be no more establishment candidates left.  It is important to note that if Cruz loses his home State of Texas then he would also be out, but he is not as important at the moment with respect to who Donald Trump has to defeat in the near term.  The analysis from the Blaze and Fox News says that if Rubio bows out after losing Florida, then the delegates will favor Trump over Cruz.  As such, Trump has an easier time versus Cruz so long as he keeps up his popularity with the establishment and the voters.


Final Thought:  So this is what I heard.  I am repeating this like a parrot, except that I condensed it to make it less boring.  Anyway, this also highlights how undemocratic the nomination process has become with respect to parties nominating their candidates.  It is kind of sad, but if Trump or Cruz gets the nod, then the system will change again with the party attempting to adjust to prevent candidates like Trump and Cruz from gaining power ever again.  Needless to say, I am favor of Cruz, but a vote for either means sticking it to the establishment.  Rebel my fellow Conservatives, Libertarians and Constitutionalists.  Rebel by voting for Trump or my guy Cruz.

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